Games Games & More Games

Saturday, September 10, 2005

Poker Axioms

  • Weak players tend to bluff closer to optimal than solid players.... therefore you are better off playing at a table full of solid players who bluff far less than optimal than you are against a table of weak players that all bluff near the optimal rate.
  • If someone bluffs way too much or bluffs not enough... do not try to induce or stop a bluff from them... in other words if someone bluffs not enough... keep them bluffing not enough... if someone bluffs too much don't discourage that...
  • If there is a tight player that is bluffing and taking a few too many pots you want to discourage the bluffing as they are probably bluffing just a hair less than they should
  • If there is an aggressive player bluffing too much you want to induce more bluffing...
WHY... you ask... if someone is bluffing too little they are predictable... when they bet they have a hand... you know what you are up against... also they are not taking extra hands... if someone is bluffing too much they WILL take a few extra pots BUT you will get a big payday when you do hit. OK one last axiom The value bet with no cards to come, heads up in last position... to do or not to do is based on the the expectation of winning if you are called. Example... you hold Jd Jc in holdem and the board is Ad Jd 7s 4c 3d ... your oponent checks to you... do you bet? No chances are the only had that could remotely justify a call that you would win whould be if he had A... and then again the board has a 3 flush and a 3 to a straight... if your oponent calls a river bet they will most likely only do so with a flush or straight. So lets say you bet this for value 10 times... 1 time you catch someone who has A7 and thinks you are bluffing... so what... and 7 time the guy folds and 2 times you get Raised... you can't call the raise so you fold.. or you could call and cost yourself more money. A more obvious example is 7 card stud... lets say you have JJJJ showing after the last card you bet... you will never ever ever ever get called ... you will only illicit a fold or a raise... a huge percentage of the time the other guy folds... your net profit on your bets is ZERO... same as checking... 1 in some big number the opponent will raise... and beat you with the straight flush... of course you have to watch if there is a tun of loose calls with no cards to come then go ahead and try it but ask yourself this question when you do... if I don't bet am I pretty certain I'll win... if not then bluffing rules apply so I'll leave that alone but if you think you will win the showdown.. then ask yourself... if he comes over the top with a big reraise what will you do... heck bet it for value if you have a lock but if not... be carefull...

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